We began this Gold Commentary in January 1996.
Due to many requests, we began to archive them in May 2000.
December 29 - "(Just) Above The Old Bull Market Top"
"We have had our first spot future Gold close since early 1996 "between $US 414 and $US 420. There are two trading days left in 2003 to get more. Whether it happens this year, or early in January next year, Gold is poised on the brink of accelerating its bull market. You have been warned."
December 19 - "Rumbles As 2003 Fades Away"
"There are seven trading days left in 2003 on US investment markets. What happens over those seven days is of interest, but of minor concern in the larger scheme of things. The exception to this will be if Gold can decisively break above the $US 414 (spot close) 1996 bull market high before the end of the year."
December 12 - "Where Is The 'Trigger Point?'"
"The most likely "target" for an upward acceleration of the Gold price is some point between $US 414 and $US 420"
December 5 - "A Week ABOVE $US 400"
"So, Gold is consolidating ABOVE $US 400 and, at its December 5 close of $US 406.40, is $US 7.60 below its February 1996 close of $US 414.00 which was the top of its previous bull market."
November 28 - "A Thanksgiving Retrospective"
"The 'price' of Gold is poised at $US 400. It will exceed $US 400 of course, it is simply a matter of time. At some point in this ascent, the world will re-discover a body of knowledge which has been suppressed, but not destroyed, and the debate about the NATURE of money will break out anew"
November 21 - "Some Things Are More Important Than $US 400 (or $US 4000) Gold"
"Many analysts have (rightly) pointed with accusing fingers to rampant Gold "price" manipulation from the mid 1990s to date. Many were pointing in the early '90s, the 80's and the 1970s too. They were equally correct."
November 14 - "The Count - Up -- $395 - $396 - $397 - $398 - ($399 - $400 - $4??)"
"On November 12, Gold bounced to $US 395. And on Friday, November 14, spot future Gold closed at $US 398 with an intraday high of $US 399.40. Getting close, aren't we?"
November 7 - "A 'Growth' On The US Economy"
"For a graphic illustration of WHY the $US 390/400 level is proving so tough to crack take a look at the strategic $US 5 x 3 point and figure chart."
October 31 - "A 'Growth' On The US Economy"
"Here is the situation in which $US Gold continues, unsuccessfully so far, to beat its head against the $US 390 level, as a prelude to the $US 400 level. After ten months of 2003, Gold's rise this year in $US terms is approximately HALF the fall of the $US this year as measured by the $US index."
October 24 - "From $US 300 to $US 400"
"Gold has breached the $US 390 level three times this year - in Asian trading in early February, in Comex trading in late September, and now once again in Comex trading in late October.".
October 17 - "Two Diplomatic 'Triumphs'"
"To sum up, the Bush Administration is utterly dependent on the rest of the world for BOTH their continued financial well being and their aura of being the world's only remaining 'superpower'".
October 10 - "The Art Of Compressing A Spring"
"... the harder you compress it, the bigger the devastation when the restraint is no longer strong enough and the spring extends back to its "full" size. That is what is now being risked in the Gold markets"
October 3 - "SHOCK AND AWE - Comex Style"
"In London, the PM Gold fix was $US 384.25 - $US 2.05 HIGHER than the PM fix on the previous day. Then, once London had closed, the New York Comex market had Gold all to itself. KABOOM!"
September 26 - "New Heights Equals New Hurdles For Gold"
"The new $US 387.50 high close for 2003 set on September 24 is $US 8.50 above that February 4 close. That is more than enough to declare that technically, Gold has now established a new UPLEG in its bull market."
September 19 - "A SUDDEN $US Swan Dive?"
"$US Gold has set its four highest 2003 closing prices over the past ten days, but NONE of them are yet far enough above the February 4 high to be decisive. The first thing that has to happen is that the February 4 entry has to be knocked off"
September 12 - "Civilisation Or Chaos?"
"The price of Gold will continue to rise as the risk of holding paper denominated assets becomes harder and harder to ignore. It will go up a lot at the point where the disgraceful twisting of the meaning of words perpetrated by US politicians becomes impossible to further ignore."
September 5 - "The Risks Of 'Risk Management'"
"The problem is that the powers that be did the "managing" and everyone else took the risks. Slowly but surely, more and more of the "everyone else" are perceiving the risks and deciding that they are too big to be taken."
August 29 - "Trying To Break Through An Old High - Again"
"In early December 2002, Gold was right on the verge of finally surmounting highs it had set six months earlier, in early June 2002. In August 2003, Gold is right on the verge of surmounting highs it had set six months earlier, in February 2003. The resemblance of the Gold price situation then and now is that close."
August 22 - "I Have No Choice"
"To say that one has "no choice" but to be in the market in the present situation is the verbal equivalent of being frozen in the headlights of an approaching train. The REAL choice is to get off the track or to be obliterated. "
August 15 - "A Tale Of Two Charts"
"Up until a week ago, neither the senior $US Gold chart nor the senior Aussie Gold Stock Index (XGO) chart had managed to climb above their previous 2003 highs. Now, both the HUI and the XGO have done just that. By ALL historical precedent, the $US Gold chart should follow in fairly short order. "
August 8 - "Gold And Higher Interest Rates"
"The table below covers a four year period from January 1976 to January 1980. The second entry, August 30, 1976 was Gold's low point in the bear market which began at the beginning of 1975. "
August 1 - "Queering The Pitch"
"In the US, the "pitch" that deflation is the main economic bugbear on the horizon, that the Fed is battling successfully against it, and that the economy is now in the throes of the long awaited "recovery", is now being royally "queered" by the bloodbath on US debt markets."
July 25 - "A Dangerous Affliction - Foot In Mouth Disease"
"The thing that gets people REALLY upset is not the suspicion that a politician is lying, but a suspicion growing into a conviction that a politician (or high government official) might be telling the truth."
July 18 - "Thank God It's (Northern) Summer!"
"... And the doldrums are upon us. If it wasn't summer, then the chances are that all hell would be breaking loose. Here is a loose roundup, in no particular order of importance, of all the potential smashups which are presently being held at bay"
July 4 Holiday - No commentary
July 11 - "Does This Look Like A Recovery?"
"Once the fact that this rate cut has had no more "productive" effect on the US economy than its predecessors had, the mirage will evaporate. With the US now firmly in the Summer doldrums, that might take a while."
July 4 Holiday - No commentary
June 27 - "Give Us This Day Our Daily Yield"
"And so, as the Fed lowers official rates even further into negative REAL territory, the Dollar continues its recovery and Gold takes another smack - aided and abetted of course by the "Gold markets" in which an actual ounce of real Gold seldom if ever changes hands."
June 20 - "On The Precipice"
"There is NO WAY that a nation's government can profligately borrow and spend, ignore both their funded and unfunded future committments, and hang a financial yoke around the necks of their dwindling productive citizenry (especially their YOUNG productive citizenry) which gets heavier each day - in perpetuity."
June 13 - "The Countdown To June 24-25"
"The monetary mechanics at the Fed and the Treasury and on Wall Street are painting themselves into a corner. They have almost no room for manoeuvre left. To maintain the structure of the system, it is ABSOLUTELY MANDATORY that ANY potential "escape route" from paper assets be debunked. Hence Gold's fall, in the face of plummeting interest rates and a falling currency."
June 6 - "Currencies Cancelled For Lack Of Interest"
"Suffice it to say here that the three most important currencies in the world, the three currencies in which EVERYONE has a stake and in which almost ALL world trade is conducted, do not offer ANY real rate of return on investment."
May 30 - "WE CAN BORROW AGAIN!"
"After more than three months of having been "frozen" at a debt limit of $US 6.4 TRILLION, the US Treasury got its credit card limit lifted this week - by $US 984 Billion to $US 7.3840 Billion."
May 23 - "The Next Leg Of The Bull Market"
"If the Europeans DO lower their rates on June 5, the pressure for a distraction will lessen. If they don't, it will increase. Either way, the measure will be temporary."
May 16 - "Tracking The Deflationary Beast"
"It is in THIS situation that the Fed has now chosen to bring to the fore, once again, the "deflation beast". Their reason for doing so is simple. The Bush Administration is deficit spending to an extent never before matched in US history."
May 9 - "An 'Accident" Looking For A Time To Happen"
"There is one economic/financial item in the US about which no-one seems to give even a passing thought. This is the utter incongruity of a nation whose currency is plummetting standing with almost non-existent interest rates."
May 2 - "Going Down! -- Going Up?"
"No, we haven't heard anybody from Washington DC talking about the "strong Dollar policy" this week either. Pretty hard to do, when the $US index has just hit a new 2003 low and confirmed the next leg of its BEAR MARKET"
April 25 - "The Dollar's Not Strong - But The US Is"
"With no means left to entice investment, the US Administration has put itself into a position where it must use threats or outright compulsion, not merely to keep foreigners buying Dollars and Treasury debt, but to prevent foreigners (and some Americans) from SELLING their present holdings"
April 18 - "Right Off The Deep End"
"If this is true, and we have no reason whatsoever to doubt the veracity of Ron Paul and EVERY reason to doubt the "official" version, then the US Administration, abetted by the Congress, has embarked on a course of outright fiscal INSANITY!"
April 11 - "Stuff Happens"
"Freedom's untidy, and free people are free to make mistakes and commit crimes and do bad things. They're also free to live their lives and do wonderful things. And that's what's going to happen here." (Donald Rumsfeld)
April 4 - "Manoeuvres - Military And Financial"
"At all costs, attention must remain glued to the war, the whole war, and NOTHING BUT THE WAR. With that in mind, US forces sprinted for Baghdad, arrived on the outskirts, and are now milling around the airport. All this in the face of almost no opposition at all.
"
March 28 - "The Fine Art Of Denial"
"In any political process, whether it is the prosecution of a war or the "management" of an economy, you can always tell when the "plans" are going off the rails. That's when the denials start."
March 21 - "The 'Reverse Gold Barometer' Storm Warning"
"It is a very telling fact that neither shock nor awe attends the openly announced subsidiary efforts now being made to make all the right things go up and all the wrong things go down on global investment markets. Nobody is in the least surprised that this is happening."
March 14 - "The Anatomy Of A 'Correction'"
"It all began on February 5, when Secretary of State Colin Powell gave his now infamous speech to the UN. ...On that same day, February 5, spot future Gold soared to $US 390 in Asia and hit its intraday 2003 spot future high of $US 384 in New York."
March 7 - "It's Breathtaking"
"In the midst of a situation in which the most transparent nonsense is desperately clung to for fear of having to actually examine the REAL situation, the "unnatural" performance of Gold against the US Dollar is completely to be expected."
February 28 - "It's Inevitable"
"This drumbeat of "inevitability" pervades almost every utterance of high US government officials. It is impossible to ignore. It is difficult to argue with simply because it is unceasing."
February 21 - "The Whole World's Waiting"!"
"Almost everything is "on hold" while the "coundown" towards a US attack on Iraq reels endlessly onwards. Nobody knows when the count will reach zero and "liftoff", or even IF it will do so."
February 14 - "A Correction? Eureka!"
"Last week a correction was not assured - hence the ?. This week the $US Gold price has dropped $US 18.00 (spot future closing basis. We most certainly DO have a correction - hence the !"
February 7 - "A Correction? Eureka!"
"Remember the war cry of the investment world during the great stock market run up of the late 1990s? That's right, it was "Buy On The Dips!". It will be fascinating to see if Gold - Silver - and especially Gold stocks - qualify this time. By ALL market history, they should."
January 31 - "'Resume Spending'"
"Next time you hear someone say that the "overbought" Gold price is merely a reaction to the uncertainty about war in Iraq, and that once the war starts and the uncertainty vanishes, Gold will plummet, think about the legacy of three generations of "resuming spending" - over and Over and OVER again."
January 24 - "It's Hard To Make Money On The Precious Metals, Isn't It?"
"... most investors face a number of problems in dealing with Gold. They don't know anything about the history of Gold in its role as money. If they phone up their broker or financial advisor and ask him to buy them some Gold, after suffering through either a shocked silence or a vehement attempt at dissuasion, they quickly find out that it's not like buying stocks."
January 17 - "What Will It Do In A War?"
"Be prepared for some wild gyrations when (we don't think there's much chance of an if) the war breaks out. But keep firmly in mind the FACT that Gold is in the early stages of a BULL market, as solid a bull market as it has enjoyed since Nixon closed the Gold window in 1971."
January 10 - "A Primer On PRIMARY Trends"
"The fact is that the "paper" markets - including the CURRENCY market, are in PRIMARY downtrends. Gold, as one would expect, is in a PRIMARY uptrend. That's all that any of us need to know."
January 3 - "2003 - And There Goes $US 350"
"If the US Administration and the Fed don't back off soon, as they did at the end of the 1970s when they let interest rates free to find their own level, the Dollar will plummet - and Gold will soar. Welcome to 2003 - it's going to be one HELL of a year."