Past Gold Bottoms: 1976, 1982, 1985, 1993
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Daily Bar Chart
10 and 20 day MA 
Weekly Bar Chart 20 and 40 week MA 
$US 2.00 x 3 P&F Chart Based on Closing prices 
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Here are the relative performances of $US Gold, the $US Index, and the Dow since Gold broke above $US 300 to stay on March 27, 2002:
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Please note the performance of Gold in $US since March 2002 compared with the Dow. Yes, we know, Gold doesn't earn any interest, but what does these days? Look at the respective percentage gains. Actually, look at Gold's percentage gain in $US terms. The Dow is nearly 10 percent below the level it was in March 2002. And that is after a 30 percent rally between March and June and yet another huge rally since mid July which hit yet another new high on September 18 as Gold was ending its first entire week above the $US 1000 level.
The USDX did not close above the 80.00 level for just over a year - from September 2007 to September 2008. On Monday, March 17, 2008 (as Gold topped $US 1000) the USDX hit a nadir of 71.30. Then came the turnaround. On September 11, 2008 the USDX got back above the 80 level for the first time in a year, closing at 80.15. On November 21, the USDX closed at its highest level since April 2006. By December 16, the day the Fed cut its rates to ZERO, the USDX had dipped back below that 80.00 level. Since then, the USDX has challenged its September highs twice and actually closed above the 89.00 level on March 5. Up until the HUGE Treasury auctions early in June, the USDX had one of fastest falls on record in percentage terms. That fall stablised until a month ago. On July 15, the USDX dipped back below the 80.00 level. It is now approaching 52-week lows below the 77.00 level, having hardly moved in the week to September 18.
Back on September 11, 2008, as the USDX regained the 80 level, Gold broke down through its August 2008 lows and sunk as low as $US 745 before a rebound on September 12. Then Gold rebounded all the way up to $US 920 on an intraday basis in one if its most spectacular weekly performances ever. Gold gave all that back and more, hitting a new spot future low close of $US 705.00 on November 13. But by the end of 2008, Gold had rebounded all the way up to $US 884, posting a healthy gain for 2008 as a whole. On February 20, 2009, Gold made it back to $US 1000. Since then, there have been two "forays" below the $US 900 level, the most recent of which was reversed at the beginning of May with Gold moving above $US 900 again. Since then, the $1000 level has proved elusive with Gold falling to a two month low of $US 909 in early July ago before bouncing back. After closing below $US 950 as recently as August 28, Gold has now broken through the $US 1000 ceiling with its spot future close of $US 1020.20 on September 16.
On the daily bar chart, the 10 and 20-day moving averages were crossing and re-crossing each other for months last year. In mid November 2008, Gold plummeted at one point almost $US 70 below its ten day moving average (MA). That was the signal. Gold steadily upward, cresting with its second foray (just) above the $US 1000 level in late Febuary. Gold almost made it back there again in May and then, as it had in February, corrected. Six weeks ago, the shorter term (10 day) Moving Average (MA) moved back above its longer-term (20-day) counterpart. That was reversed three weeks ago. Now, the shorter-term MA is established above again with Gold following to once again exceed the $US 1000 level.
On the weekly chart, the 10-week moving average (MA) moved below its 20-week counterpart in mid May 2008 for the first time since the beginning of the "credit squeeze" in August 2007. How ironic that in August 2008, the shorter-term MA moved back above its longer-term counterpart. That situation was quickly reversed and in mid September, Gold fell to well over $US 100 below both MAs on this chart. That is as big as discrepancy (in reverse) as was the case in March 2008 when Gold hit $US 1000. As you can see, when Gold hit $US 1000 the price once again soared above both moving averages. Once again, the move was too fast. In early March, Gold dipped below the 10-week MA while in early April, the price fell below the 20 week MA for the first time since January. That has since been reversed. A little over a month ago, Gold moved back above BOTH MAs for the first time since mid-June. That certainly remains the case with the move back above $US 1000 this week.
For a better view of the point and figure chart, please see this chart (link appears here in original analysis). Gold has had a wild ride since it hit $US 1000 back in March 2008, falling as low as just above the $US 700 level last November and then rebounding to close the year just below $US 900. As you can see, the big rise in February took Gold all the way back to the $US 1000 level and led to a steep uprend line on the chart. Gold broke below its uptrend line on the chart with its move down below the $US 875 level on April 6 and continued that move with its close below $US 870 on April 17. As you can see, Gold recently dipped just below the trendline only to turn right around and rise above it again. Since then, the chart has steadily trended higher. Now, Gold is EIGHT "XS" above its March 2008 highs on this chart. All signals point to a Gold surge.
Here's another perspective - a comparison between Gold's 2002 low and its present price and the $US index 2002 high and its present "price". All data is on CLOSING levels:
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As always, we refer you to the strategic $US 5 x 3 point and figure Gold chart (link appears here in original analysis) for an overview on the situation.
This chart is a superb example of the value of point and figure charts for showing LONG TERM trends in a market.
Gold's big run up to $US 1000 started in September 2007 with the metal ending the year just below its all time highs in $US terms. It rose above the $US 800 level on November 2 and to all time highs above the $US 900 level on January 14, 2008. Then came mid March 2008 and $US 1000 - and then came the correction.
That correction bottomed out in November 2008 with Gold just above the $US 700 level. The metal had succumbed, along with every other "commodity" to the HUGE bout of deleveraging and capital repatriation which was such a feature of the latter half of 2008.
But unlike all the other "commodities", Gold rebounded late in the year to become one of the very few investments worldwide which actually rose in $US terms in 2008. And after another sell-off in the first half of January, that rise resumed. At its 1002.20 close on February 20, Gold regained its all time high on this chart.
The chart smashed above the two downtrend lines established during the correction from the $US 1000 level set in February 2009, forming a strong resistance line established at $US 1000 with support in the $US 870-880 area. As you can see, this chart has been in an immense "reverse head and shoulders formation" with the two "shoulders" marked by Gold's two forays to the $US 1000. In the second week of June, we had the first downturn on this chart since the end of April. Gold fell to $US 910 on the chart with the latest downturn coming with the $US 19.80 fall on July 8. Since then, we had two moves to the $US 950 level by the end of July. Gold broke above that resistance by reaching $US 965 on the chart on August 4. Now, a month later, we have had the surge which breaks the chart out of the tight range it has been in for most of the northern summer. Gold cracked $US 1000 last week and went on to reach $US 1020 this week. That revalidates the entire bull market on this chart.